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THE ALTA REPORT
A quarterly compilation of BNY Mellon perspectives derived from our unique jackpotjoy slots vantage point at the intersection of markets.
AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?
The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.
Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability
The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...
China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy
Re-opening
After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...
Monthly Market Roundup
September 2024
A ‘growth scare’ spurs a (brief)
bout of market volatility
Global equity gained on the month (+2.6%), but it was anything but smooth sailing as US growth concerns sparked a sell-off at the start of the month. The S&P 500 declined ~6% in early August but recovered to post a monthly gain (+2.4%). However, the Nasdaq was hit harder and only eked out a slight gain (+0.7%) on the month. The strengthening Japanese Yen spurred a strong pullback in Japanese equities, but as volatility eased, the market recovered most of its losses. Fixed jackpotjoy bingo income gained as key rates moved lower and expectations for near-term rate cuts increased. US 10-year yields plummeted from above 4% to an intraday low of 3.7% but trended higher to end the month ~3.9%. The US yield curve (“2s10s”) un-inverted, the first time since mid-2022, and is now roughly flat. .
Points of View
Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?
The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)
Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing
Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...
Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling
The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...
Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications
This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.
Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain
The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...
Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.
The state of global supply jackpotjoy casino chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...
A Deep Dive into QT
In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...
Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?
In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...
The Impact of QT on Financial Markets
We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...
Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different
We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...
Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group
Meet the minds behind the research.
Keith Collier, CFA
Head of Asset Allocation Research
Ryan Milgrim, CFA
Senior Research Analyst
MARK-487914-2024-01-24
