Monthly Market Roundup
October 2024
September sentiment upswing
jackpotjoy bingo underpinned by FED and China
- Global equities had a shaky start at the beginning of September on growth fears and US election uncertainty. But market sentiment swung around on Fed rate cuts and a broader than expected, late month, policy easing from China.
- Overall, US data releases were in line with our central scenario of a “soft landing” — to which we assign nearly even odds — where growth slows to a below trend rate for a while, and inflation shifts down to target. But there were also glimmers of a “re-acceleration” — 30% odds — with improving consumer sentiment, a pick-up in corporate refinancing, and the China stimulus taking out adverse left-tail macro risks and tantalizing markets with more upside.
- European markets were less buoyant with euro area flash PMIs falling into contractionary territory, and sentiment was beaten down further by downbeat Geran industrial confidence. But rapidly easing inflation has raised the odds of quicker ECB cuts.
- In Asia, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stayed on hold after its surprise jackpotjoy casino hike last month. But the election of a new prime minister, Mr. Ishiba, raised market concerns about a hawkish tilt in policies going forward, and which strengthened the yen and weighed on Japanese equities.
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Points of View
Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?
The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)
Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing
Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...
Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling
The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...
Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications
This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.
Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain
The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...
Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.
The state of global supply chains are widely seen jackpotjoy slots as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...
A Deep Dive into QT
In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...
Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?
In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...
The Impact of QT on Financial Markets
We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...
Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different
We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...
BNY Advisors Investment Institute
Meet the minds behind the research.
Keith Collier, CFA
Head of Asset Allocation Research
Eric Hundahl, CFA
Head of Investment Institute
Ryan Milgrim, CFA
Senior Research Analyst
MARK-487914-2024-01-24
