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VANTAGE POINT
Measure Twice, Cut Once

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

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THE ALTA REPORT

A quarterly compilation of BNY Mellon perspectives derived from our unique jackpotjoy casino vantage point at the intersection of markets.

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AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

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Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability

The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...

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China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy
Re-opening
 

After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...

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Monthly Market Roundup

 

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July 2024

June 2024 Overview

Global equities held up quite well in June. The All-Country World Index (ACWI) rose 2.3% even amidst heightened political risks — with snap elections being called in France, a loss for the Conservative party being largely baked into market pricing in the UK, and setbacks for President Biden in his first televised debate raising the odds of discontinuity in US policies and regulations. But the run-up in global equities was narrow. It was mainly driven by 1) buoyant tech stocks which fueled the NASDAQ rally (up 6% in June); and 2) by emerging market (EM) equities (+4%) which jackpotjoy reviews showed further signs of de-coupling from China. Equities were down on the month in several areas: Europe (-1.4%) led by France (-6%), China (-1.8%) and even US small caps (-0.9%).

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Points of View

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Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

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Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

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Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing

Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...

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Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling

The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...

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Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications

This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.

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Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain

The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...

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Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.

The state of global supply chains are widely seen jackpotjoy casino as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...

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A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

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Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

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The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

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Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

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Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis

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Keith Collier, CFA

Head of Asset Allocation Research


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Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist

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Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy

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Ryan Milgrim, CFA

Senior Research Analyst

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